The average age of cars have risen from 9 to 11 years [0], you are correct. However, though the vehicle depreciates at a lower rate, the cash paid doesnt change as financing periods are not linked to the usable life of the vehicle.
Your mental framework of greater reliability leading to a glut of used cars is still theoretical at this point. Used car prices are up 33% from 2001-2022. I don't think it's a sound assumption to believe the rise in car prices is a "blip". The supply chain is as fragile as it ever was. With a move to onshoring (e.g. the chips act), a war with Russia and much-worsening Chinese tensions, I don't see anything but a secular shift in how cars are manufactured.
Your mental framework of greater reliability leading to a glut of used cars is still theoretical at this point. Used car prices are up 33% from 2001-2022. I don't think it's a sound assumption to believe the rise in car prices is a "blip". The supply chain is as fragile as it ever was. With a move to onshoring (e.g. the chips act), a war with Russia and much-worsening Chinese tensions, I don't see anything but a secular shift in how cars are manufactured.
[0] https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-truc...
[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SETA02