A recent post asked a question similar to 'Am I going insane or is there no value in blockchain tech'. I have been thinking more about the idea that perhaps blockchain tech has reached maturity, and that we are instead waiting on the remainder of 'Web3' to mature.
I may be oversimplifying, but if I look at Web3 as the existing internet, but without central intermediaries; then most applications can be built this way today. If we want a Clubhouse, or Zoom clone, these could be built atop existing WebRTC infrastructure. A Whatsapp clone can be built atop libp2p messaging (again I oversimplify). From the internet infrastructure view, the part that was missing has always been mechanisms of identity, ownership, and payment (trust mechanics in general). Today, blockchains handle these in a variety of formats, such that a project can just pick the chain that fits best with the application architecture. In 'Web 2.0', if I want auth, payments, file storage, etc - I would simply stitch together one or more infrastructure providers such as AWS. This feels very natural today.
Is it possible that blockchain has already reached maturity for the value it brings to the decentralized web? Are there any popular applications today that could not be built peer-2-peer in this context?
The big gap I still see in this view is who pays for services that are free in Web 2.0 (such as Facebook). But even in this case, blockchains provide a variety of incentive mechanics where increasing usage could appreciate a digital token, which in turn gives incentive for people to run the underlying infrastructures.
I also feel crazy in that there seems to be consensus that blockchain is suppose to do everything, or should be doing more than it does. In all of this, I am viewing the problem space from the domain of infrastructure, agnostic of application. Is blockchain tech already everything we need it to be?
Simply put, not at all. There are several massive developments that need to occur. These are mostly in the context of Ethereum but likely all blockchains would benefit from such changes:
- Complete transition to proof-of-stake on all popular web3 chains (i.e. Ethereum)
- Better decentralized staking pools, more accessible staking software/hardware solutions
- Scalability through rollups, data sharding, and zero-knowledge proofs
- Light clients and data availability sampling (eg: so your client can verify state of chain w/o downloading GBs of data)
- Better hardware: cold wallets, zk-proof generation, staking
- Better ways of auditing, formally verifying and interacting with contracts
- Account abstraction (EIP-4337)
- Post-quantum cryptography
I don't think its possible to predict how long this will take to mature, perhaps another several years (5-10). And very likely, by that point, there will be new research and new problems to solve. This can be seen with, for example, zero-knowledge research being something that has been around for decades, but succinct zero-knowledge proofs being only introduced in more recent years, and leading to sudden and profound changes in the direction of blockchain development.