This feels a lot like 1995 or 1996 to me. New technology (WWW then, mobile phones and cloud computing now), just beginning to get mainstream adoption. Coming out of a recession that had been a 4-year funk. Fairly loose monetary policy. A couple hot stars beginning to IPO, but nothing terribly crazy.
People said there was irrational exuberance in 1996, but it took 5 years before the bubble actually burst, and it went up a lot in the meantime.
Ask me in 5 years, and I think then we'll be in a bubble. Now, we're just in a recovery, but not everybody knows it yet.
Me too. Ergo it could produce another bubble. But here's why I'm doubtful:
1. Wild prediction: our free money era will be over in 3 years. Last time the money got cheaper as the bubble got bigger, due to the fear of Y2K.
2. No thundering herd of new retail investors. And it wasn't just that etrade and datek opened up the stock market to thousands of novices. They were novices who had watched the market rise for decades and never really go down.
The Fed's the giant wildcard today. Bernanke claims that he has a plan to mop up the excess liquidity in the market. If he starts tightening, I'd predict a sharp double-dip (like 81-82), followed by sustained 80s-style prosperity. If he doesn't tighten or tightens too late, I think we'll get another bubble like the late 90s.
Look at the price of gas. Last time it was this high, it was february of 2008. In 4 months, gas shot up to its peak, and we all know what happened right after that.
Second dip is coming. Lots of layoffs, even in tech industry.
People said there was irrational exuberance in 1996, but it took 5 years before the bubble actually burst, and it went up a lot in the meantime.
Ask me in 5 years, and I think then we'll be in a bubble. Now, we're just in a recovery, but not everybody knows it yet.