Lately I also wonder about the geopolitical lock-in and balkanization of the internet. US won't have this problem I guess. But with all that's happening in the world right now and the current trends, for the rest of us we need to think hard what AI company we trust with our data or trust to still have access to once we're on the other side of the wall.
This NewsGuard's Reality Check website [0] claims it is currently being done by Moscow. I think it's only a matter of time before we see the internet flooded with this kind of activity.
> The massive ship named USSR sank in a matter of months
There was a decade of dysfunction and ossification before the USSR collapsed within a couple months
A decade of low oil prices (affecting exports), high defense spending (increasing deficit), societal unrest due to the resurgence of nationalism, and slowing productivity all happened quietly over the 1980s before catalyzing into collapse.
> decade of low oil prices (affecting exports), high defense spending (increasing deficit), societal unrest due to the resurgence of nationalism, and slowing productivity
Good thing the US hasn't .. oh.
(the oil price is actually OK as is the trade balance, so far, but social cohesion is fraying and people are always complaining about productivity)
US productivity is going into things like un-avoidable advertisements from your new Jeep when you come to a stop, embedding dark patterns for everything, and spending all R&D on a tool to replace all human workers. A nation can totally be held together heathily under today's 'productivity'.
Many of these things have been happening in the US for the better part of a decade (or longer).
Did the USSR have an entire administration rapidly and deliberately tearing down their government, or was it more of the cracks in the foundation finally giving out?
Just because the former took a decade doesn't mean that this will require the same amount of time.
I guess it could be argued that it had been in the process of sinking for a longer time, but I don't know enough about the history of the USSR to assert that being the case
Such resets are sometimes followed by civil wars, economy crashes style "there is no food for tomorrow" and a generational trauma. As the one who has been through it, be careful what you wish for.
> I honestly prefer that outcome. At least that’d be a reset instead of this infinite downward cycle.
If the USA gets a repeat of the USSR collapse, you're looking at an independent Texas and California (and perhaps Hawaii?) within a few years, 50% GDP loss, proper hyperinflation, infighting over the nuclear arsenal being under federal authority or the authority of whichever state it happened to be physically in at the time, and a 6-7 year reduction in life expectancy.
I don't think there are many people who believe the state shouldn't intervene at all and that humanity will blossom without it. I'm sure most people strive for some kind of balance.
For those of us who are old enough and were born in the USSR, it feels like we've seen how a similar scenario with too much state intervention has played out before. On one hand, we were so proud of putting a man in space before anyone else; on the other hand, we used to hoard a year's supply of toilet paper and other basic necessities.
Honestly, I think the problem for the USSR were more closely tied to early on becoming a military dictatorship than the particular economic ideas that military dictatorship took on.
If you eliminate economic gain as a motivation for doing things, what's left is to motivate through fear. You aren't working hard enough? You're a breaker; off to the gulag for you!
The tactics of Russian operatives have always been more nuanced than simply "eliminating the adversary". Typically, such extreme measures are reserved for traitors, like Sergei Skripal or the helicopter pilot who defected to Ukraine.
In certain instances, they opt for psychological warfare techniques, similar to those employed by the Stasi in East Germany during the 1970s and 1980s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zersetzung
Guess where Putin was stationed in the '80s during his tenure as a KGB officer?
Russia doesn't allow ukrainians back to the occupied territories, they deport the non-complicit ones and the remaining ones are heavily oppressed. That should be the excuse for Poland or the rest of EU to not let the refugees in?
If Egypt were to abandon leave with Isreal, they would take in refugees and then allow them to return back across their border to Gaza. Maybe they fear that Isreal would bomb them, but it would be harder to politically justify if Egypt wasn't agressing AND the returning Palestinians were returning to create a peaceful state.
The problem seems to be that Palestinians don't want peace, or are unable to separate themselves from the terrorists government.
Yea, it will probably never end as Palestines have a right according to international law to attack Israel as they are occupied by them. Even if Hamas disappear as an organisation the resistance part will continue and there will probably never be peace until Palestines get the country they were promised and the illegal settlements are removed.
Let's assume Russia indeed felt threaten by NATO and US and it somehow justifies taking a military action against. Then why Putin instead of dealing with NATO and US bombs women and children of Ukraine? Sieges and shells Mariupol for a month so people have to dig graves right in the yards of residential buildings and along the streets?
Politicians face three major problems with big decisions like war:
1. What should I do?
2. How do I sell it to the people at home?
3. How do I sell it to the rest of the world?
I think that accounts for why some correctly observe Putin claimed Ukraine needed to be "liberated" from all the Nazis (#2 above). It's also why Russia has said repeatedly that NATO caused the war (#3 above).
As for the actual cause (#1 above), like all wars, there are probably multiple factors, like:
1. Former KGB Putin and plenty of others longing for the "glory days" of the USSR.
2. A desire to stop NATO expansion by intimidating anyone else who might want in.
3. Removing the Zolynksy government and replacing with a pro-Russia government.
4. Solidifying access to the Black Sea and claims to Crimea.
...
ETA: also remember, if news reports are accurate, Putin thought this war would be a 5-minute cakewalk. I suspect Russia might not have invaded if they knew the cost in lives and dollars this war would bring.
Because Russia can't wage a par purely based on what's in Putin's head. The assumptions and beliefs of any given leader ends up encoded in both internal policy memos, and in the observed strategic decisions made by the various agencies tasked with executing on said leader's goals. Both are places where external observers can infer what is going on in the upper levels of the government.
